Jeff Currie’s “New Joule Order”
A Compelling but Flawed Energy Framework
Jeff Currie is a sharp thinker with decades in oil and commodities—when he speaks, I listen. His “New Joule Order“ offers an interesting but problematic take on the future of energy.
Currie argues that energy security now drives the transition, with nations prioritizing a localized, diverse energy mix to reduce geopolitical and financial risks. Electrification enables true diversification, integrating all sources into the grid and standardizing joules, leveling the importance of one energy source over another.
Peak Oil has become Peak Oil Trade. While fossil fuels remain, global oil trade volume has likely peaked as countries shift focus to energy independence over foreign reliance. Nations that fail to adapt will fall behind.
The New Joule Order replaces the green premium with a security premium, where tariffs and supply control take priority over carbon taxes. With the U.S. now a net petroleum exporter, it has less incentive to protect global supply chains, making energy dependence a growing liability.
Where Currie’s Framework Falls Short
Currie assumes a joule is a joule, but in practice, energy isn’t interchangeable. He focuses on electricity markets, overlooking fossil fuels’ grip on transport and industry—sectors that can’t easily electrify. Aviation, shipping, and trucking run on oil because batteries are too heavy, and hydrogen infrastructure is decades away. Steel, cement, plastics, and fertilizers rely on coal, oil, and gas for both energy and feedstock, with no scalable electric alternative today.
Mike,
You have to ask yourself, What is energy dominance for? It's for promoting America's power in the world.
Energy independence on its own is meaningless.
All the best,
Art
“The U.S. remains the world’s largest trade and financial market—energy independence doesn’t change that. Protecting trade routes remains essential to its economy and military power.” - Art Berman